Daily AI Insight

Waves Technical Analysis for 2026-07-31

Jul 31, 2026

Key Takeaways

  • Current price: $2.24 as of the latest available snapshot.
  • Overall sentiment: Neutral to slightly bearish. The composite technical score sits at 50 (exactly neutral), while on-chain fundamentals score a weak 34, indicating below-average network activity.
  • Lower-timeframe conflict: Both the 15m and 30m charts show no significant pattern formation, and their technical scores (42 and 41) are below neutral, suggesting short-term weakness without a clear directional bias.
  • Key risk: On-chain metrics show a dramatic drop in 24-hour DEX volume and fees (both near -100%), pointing to a sudden collapse in transactional activity that could undermine price support.

Overview

  • Important nuances: The overall technical score is exactly 50 – the midpoint – meaning no strong directional signal from the aggregate indicator set. The on-chain score of 34 is well below neutral, signaling fundamental weakness. No fundamental or social scores are available.

Waves is trading at $2.24. The technical score of 50 places the asset exactly at the neutral midpoint, implying that the collection of indicators (ADX, RSI, MACD, etc.) does not lean decisively bullish or bearish. The on-chain score of 34, sourced from DefiLlama, is significantly below 50, reflecting depressed network usage. The 24-hour fee revenue stands at just $58, and DEX volume is $10,029 – both having collapsed by approximately -100% compared to the previous day. Chain TVL is $6.87 million, up 1.76% on the day but still modest. The stablecoin market cap is $12.15 million, down 7.49% over 24 hours. Overall, the price is supported by a neutral technical backdrop but faces headwinds from a sharp on-chain activity contraction.

Lower Timeframe Analysis (15m and 30m)

  • Important nuances: No chart patterns were detected on either the 15m or 30m timeframe. Both timeframes have technical scores below 50 (42 and 41 respectively), indicating below-average conditions. The 15m RSI is 39 (oversold territory), while the 30m RSI is 46 (neutral).

15-minute timeframe: Analysis price is $2.24 (current). No significant chart patterns were detected – the pattern_charts data is null. The technical score is 42, below the neutral 50, suggesting weak short-term momentum. Key indicators: RSI at 39 (oversold), MACD at 46 (slightly bearish), and VWAP at 32 (price below volume-weighted average). The Ichimoku score of 70 is the only bullish outlier, but it is not enough to generate a pattern signal.

30-minute timeframe: Similarly, no significant patterns were found. The technical score is 41, even lower than the 15m. RSI is 46 (neutral), but OBV is 21 (very low volume support) and volume trend is 17 (extremely weak). The MACD score of 61 is mildly bullish, but the overall structure remains weak. Because both timeframes lack valid patterns and have scores below 50, there is no short-term directional bias – the market is essentially drifting without a clear pattern-driven setup.

Higher Timeframe Analysis (1h and 4h)

  • Important nuances: No chart patterns were detected on the 1h or 4h either. The 1h technical score is exactly 50 (neutral), while the 4h score is 53 (slightly above neutral). The 4h RSI of 16 is deeply oversold, which could signal a potential bounce but also reflects sustained selling pressure.

1-hour timeframe: No significant patterns. Technical score is 50 – neutral. Indicators are mixed: ADX at 63 (strong trend, but direction unclear), RSI at 50 (exactly neutral), MACD at 55 (mildly bullish), and VWAP at 75 (price above VWAP, bullish). However, moving averages score is 20 (very bearish), and OBV is 38 (below average). The neutral overall score means no strong conviction from the hourly data.

4-hour timeframe: No significant patterns. Technical score is 53, slightly above neutral. The most notable indicator is RSI at 16 – deeply oversold. This is often a precursor to a relief rally, but it also confirms persistent bearish momentum. ADX is 68 (strong trend), and the CCI is 69 (bullish). However, OBV is 21 (very low volume support) and volume trend is 23 (weak). The oversold RSI is the key feature, but without a pattern or volume confirmation, it remains a cautionary signal rather than a clear buy setup.

On-Chain Context and Risks

  • Important nuances: The on-chain score of 34 is well below neutral. 24-hour DEX volume and fees both declined by approximately -100% (exact: -99.99988% and -99.99990% respectively), indicating a near-total collapse in daily transactional activity. Stablecoin netflow is negative over 24h and 7d, suggesting capital outflows.

The on-chain data paints a picture of a network in a low-activity state. The on-chain score of 34 (out of 100) is firmly in bearish territory. Key metrics: DEX volume in the last 24 hours is $10,029, down 35.78% from the previous day and effectively -100% from the day before that (the dex_change_1d_pct is -99.99988%). Similarly, fees fell 23.68% in 24 hours and are also near -100% from the prior day. Chain TVL is $6.87 million, up 1.76% on the day but down 1.44% over the week. Stablecoin market cap dropped 7.49% in 24 hours and 5.62% over the week. Stablecoin netflow is negative: -$3,221 in 24h and -$3,563 over 7d, indicating capital leaving the ecosystem. The fee-to-TVL ratio is 0.0000084, extremely low. These metrics suggest that the Waves network is experiencing a sharp contraction in usage, which poses a risk to price stability. The lack of derivatives data (all null) means we cannot assess leverage or hedging activity.

Confirmation and Invalidation Triggers

  • Important nuances: Because no valid chart patterns exist on any timeframe, there are no pattern-based targets to use as triggers. Confirmation/invalidation must rely on the analysis price ($2.24) and the oversold/extreme conditions.

Without pattern targets, the primary triggers are based on technical extremes and on-chain recovery:

  • Confirmation of a short-term bounce: A move above the 4h VWAP (score 64) and a recovery in the 4h RSI above 30 would suggest the oversold condition is being resolved. On the on-chain side, a meaningful increase in 24h DEX volume (above $50,000) and fees (above $200) would indicate activity returning.
  • Invalidation of a bounce: A break below the 15m low (implied by current price action) with increasing volume could signal further downside. If the 4h RSI remains below 20 for an extended period, it would confirm persistent bearish momentum. Continued negative stablecoin netflow and further declines in TVL would also invalidate any bullish thesis.

Short-Term and Long-Term Read

Short-term (next 1-3 days): The setup leans cautious. The 4h RSI is deeply oversold (16), which historically can precede a relief bounce, but the lack of a chart pattern and the near-total collapse in on-chain activity argue against aggressive positioning. The 15m and 30m timeframes show no directional bias, and the 1h is neutral. A cautious interpretation is that the asset may attempt a minor recovery from oversold levels, but the data does not yet support a sustained move higher without a catalyst from on-chain activity.

Long-term (weeks to months): The long-term read is bearish based on on-chain fundamentals. The on-chain score of 34, combined with declining TVL, vanishing DEX volume, and negative stablecoin netflow, suggests the Waves ecosystem is losing traction. The technical scores on higher timeframes (1d: 51, 1w: 56) are only slightly above neutral, not enough to offset the fundamental weakness. Until on-chain activity recovers meaningfully, the data does not support a long-term bullish outlook. A more favorable risk/reward would require a sustained improvement in network usage metrics.

For the latest data and charts, visit the Waves analysis hub.